The Green Mirage: India’s Fading Forests

In the mist-laden folds of the Western Ghats, a UNESCO World Heritage Site where moss-clad trees whisper ancient secrets, something subtle yet profound is changing. The lush canopy that once stood as a symbol of vitality is now showing signs of fatigue. It is not just a matter of fading hues; it’s a quiet weakening of the very pulse that keeps these forests alive.

A groundbreaking study by researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kharagpur has revealed that the photosynthetic efficiency of India’s forests, their ability to absorb carbon and convert it into biomass, has declined by between 5% and 12% over the past two decades. The findings serve as a wake-up call to the fact that, despite appearing greener from space, India's forests are actually growing weaker in function.

“Yes, India is greening, but that does not mean the ecosystems are healthy,” says Prof. Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath, one of the study’s authors. “We find that forest health is declining in India by about 5–12%, depending on the region and forest type.”

The Illusion of Greenness

For years, India’s official reports have proudly celebrated an increase in green cover, presenting it as evidence of successful afforestation efforts and climate progress. Yet, the new findings tell a more nuanced story.

“Greening and carbon uptake are two different entities,” explains Prof. Kuttippurath. “Greenness is a structural feature, but carbon uptake is a functional attribute.” To uncover this distinction, the team introduced a new metric, Ecosystem Photosynthetic Efficiency (EPE), which measures how effectively a forest converts photosynthetic activity into actual biomass. The results are disquieting: while India’s forests may look greener, they are less efficient in translating that greenness into carbon absorption.

In particular, the evergreen broadleaf forests of the Eastern Himalayas and Western Ghats, long considered ecological fortresses, show the steepest decline, with EPE dropping by as much as 12%. This decline in EPE, the researchers argue, signals a weakening of the country’s natural carbon sinks and, by extension, its forest ecosystem health.

“We find a marked decline in EPE across Indian forests,” Prof. Kuttippurath notes. “It means their ability to assimilate or sequester carbon has been hindered, and this trend is expected to worsen under a warmer, drier future climate.”

Indeed, projections are grim. The study estimates that between mid-century (2040–2050) and the end of the century (2090–2100), EPE could decline by an additional 10%, and forest biomass could shrink by nearly one-fourth. What we are witnessing, he warns, is not just a momentary stress; it's a long-term weakening of nature’s lungs.

The Green Mirage Deepens

These findings challenge a deeply held assumption that an increase in tree cover automatically means ecological recovery. In reality, much of India’s "new green” is a green mirage. These new areas represent monoculture plantations of species like eucalyptus and acacia that grow fast but offer little to the complex web of biodiversity that defines a healthy forest.

“It’s true that green cover is increasing,” says Kuttippurath, “but the gain in greenness does not assure a corresponding increase in carbon uptake.”

While satellites may detect an uptick in vegetation density, the underlying ecosystem functions are faltering.

“Indian forests are a prime example of this paradox,” he continues. “We see an increase in greenness but a simultaneous decline in carbon uptake due to reduced Ecosystem Photosynthetic Efficiency.” India’s official carbon sink estimates based on field measurements and biomass inventories don’t capture this subtle but crucial degradation. By contrast, EPE operates at the leaf scale and provides a direct proxy for the forest’s ability to translate light into life. “This makes it a far more sensitive indicator of forest health,” he adds.

When Climate and Humans Collide

The weakening of India’s forests is not the result of a single factor but of a web of interconnected stressors. Soil moisture decline is the dominant limiting factor for EPE, exerting roughly 27% relative control over photosynthetic efficiency. Unlike croplands, where irrigation can partly compensate, forests depend entirely on climatic water availability.

“In a warming climate,” Prof. Kuttippurath explains, “land and atmospheric moisture demand rises, depleting the soil of readily available water.”

Combined with heat stress and increased wildfire risk, this leads to rapid degradation of forest vitality. The situation is compounded by deforestation, mining, and forest fragmentation, which disrupt the delicate land–atmosphere moisture recycling that supports regional rainfall. The numbers are sobering: only 16% of India’s forests maintain high ecological integrity, compared to a global average of around 40%. “So, both climate-induced dryness and human intrusions,” Kuttippurath concludes, “are together weakening the health and functioning of Indian forests.”

The Global Pulse

India’s forests make up just 2% of global forest area, yet contribute nearly 7% of global annual carbon uptake, a staggering share that underscores their importance to global climate balance. A decline in their capacity to sequester carbon, therefore, carries implications far beyond national borders.

“Our results show reduced ability of Indian forest ecosystems to translate greenness into carbon uptake in recent decades,” says Kuttippurath. “This decline is most pronounced in the pristine forests of the Eastern Himalaya and Western Ghats due to enhanced moisture stress, rising aridity, and increased wildfires.” The message is clear: even the most resilient ecosystems are buckling under the combined weight of climate change and human exploitation.

“This suggests that the natural carbon sinks of the Earth are under a big threat,” he warns. “Forests, the very systems meant to buffer us from climate change are themselves becoming victims of it.”

Rethinking Restoration

What does a truly restorative path forward look like? For Kuttippurath, the answer lies in moving beyond the simplistic metrics of hectares planted or trees counted.

“There is an urgent need to preserve indigenous forests and adopt scientific, sustainable management practices,” he emphasizes. Restoration efforts, he argues, must focus on climate-resilient native species, mixed-species plantations, and above all, the protection of existing natural forests.

“Mixed-species forests will fare better than monocultures,” he says, “but we must also ensure that invasive species do not take hold.” Beyond reforestation, the professor stresses the need for reducing emissions and investing in advanced carbon capture technologies. “To achieve India’s net-zero target by 2070,” he explains, “we must manage land-based emissions more effectively and strengthen our forests as carbon reservoirs.”